Black Friday: Nolan Dalla

Nolan Dalla’s view of the ramifications of the online gambling bill. Full article here.

As to the impacts on poker and sportsbetting, this new law is going to be DEVASTATING. Especially for poker.

Consider that:

A. If poker sites cannot accept deposits from US players, that will kill 70-80 percent of the overall market. The question becomes — is there enough of a remaining market and enough contributing players in smaller markets to sustain operations and expansion? Perhaps. But it will take years, if not a decade to return to what has been the golden age of poker.

B. Online poker sites and sportsbooks will no longer be able to advertise (.COM-related services) inside the US. Media outlets will simply refuse to accept the ads. This includes print, television, and radio. Consider the implications. Thousands of new players were signing up daily at various sites. All of that vanishes. Sports gambling is less-reliant on advertising. However, the loss of the US market will force unforeseen changes in how these businesses are run, especially those companies that have multiple-gambling related products, such as BoDog, Paradise, etc.

C. Online betting sites will likely not be able to post banner ads and links to gaming sites, especially those based inside the US. “Aiding and abetting” laws could result in arrest and prosecution for those who provide links to US residents. Poker magazines, online betting forums, and even MadJacks could suffer. I remain uncertain as to how severe this impact will be, especially at MadJacks. But for the hundreds of poker sites/sports sties and blogs out there that are dependent upon online poker and sportsbook advertising, many will go out of business. Once again, this might not seem a big issue to everyone, but these are the pioneers who are bringing in new poker players and sports bettors and when they dry up, the market shrinks and everyone is adversely affected.

D. Many sites use what are called affiliates. Persons who are affiliates and live inside the US will now be subject to arrest and prosecution, particularly those who do not block financial transactions from the US.

E. The celebrity poker culture around star poker players will diminish. One poker site is heavily branded to many big names. Now, these players will no longer be able to promote their sites inside the US. Hence, their value and stature diminishes.

F. Big events like the World Series of Poker, which attract meany players and great interest from online poker sites, could decline in size for the first time in history. I am most sensitive to commenting upon this event because I still have a longstanding association with the WSOP. However, anyone who looks at the situation must conclude that the WSOP and major poker tournaments will be hurt by this new law.

G. Online gaming sponsorships of various products and services will decline. For instance, Golden Palace ads in boxing arenas, NBA stadiums, and on halftime shows will diminish, if not end completely. PartyPoker ads that are seen regularly on TV, on all stations, will fade away. Millions in advertising revenue will be lost by media companies (which begs the question (why were they not fighting this legislation?)

This article would be fairly reasonably classified under the “pessimistic” category. ChrisV and others are more optimistic. However, ChrisV and many others have another career to fall back on if they’re wrong. Dalla and I don’t. We can’t afford not to think about the worst case scenario.

Explore posts in the same categories: Poker, Politics

13 Comments on “Black Friday: Nolan Dalla”

  1. ChrisV Says:

    The article is pessimistic on outlook for the SITES, as well it should be. How players outside the US will fare isn’t really addressed.

    A, B: Yes, assuming US players don’t find other places to play in the long term, we’re returning to 2003 levels of players and some sites will probably go under. So what?

    C: Seems overstated. Why wouldn’t sites be able to advertise, say, PartyPoker, if PartyPoker doesn’t even accept US players?

    D, E, F, G: I don’t care about any of these in the slightest.

    My earn will likely drop, but I will be able to cope UNLESS U.S. pros are still playing and U.S. casual players aren’t. That would probably be quite tough. It’s still far too early to tell whether that will happen.

  2. yobbo Says:

    “My earn will likely drop, but I will be able to cope UNLESS U.S. pros are still playing and U.S. casual players aren’t.”

    I think the whole point of this article is that US casual players won’t play. How are they even going to know where to play if the sites aren’t even allowed to advertise? Have you seen how many ppl play on WSEX that aren’t pros there for the 100% rakeback? Approxiamately zero, because they don’t advertise. Even though they offer the best deal of any poker site on the planet, nobody plays there.

  3. ChrisV Says:

    They can advertise the .net sites, just like they did at the WSOP.

  4. ChrisV Says:

    Also losing players dont care about rake in the slightest and who can blame them? They’re just going to lose their money anyway. They care about big tourneys like they have at Party and Stars.

  5. yobbo Says:

    You can’t run big tourneys if you don’t advertise them. And according to Dalla’s article, they WON’T be able to advertise the .net site. No internet gambling operator will be able to advertise anything in the US anywhere.

  6. yobbo Says:

    Or to be more accurate, no business will ACCEPT advertising from, because doing so could open them up to criminal charges.

  7. ChrisV Says:

    “B. Online poker sites and sportsbooks will no longer be able to advertise (.COM-related services) inside the US. Media outlets will simply refuse to accept the ads.”

    The .net sites are not gambling sites. That’s the whole point of them.

  8. mister z Says:

    Yobbo, it’s pretty damn pants when anyone’s livelihood is threatened, but as a man working daily in a field of where you’re assessing odds & risk, you surely hedged against this happening? You haven’t really just sat playing poker for 7 years? Seriously?

  9. yobbo Says:

    Hedged against it how mister z? Of course I can go back to work at a minimum wage job somewhere if I have to, I’d really rather not though.

    The only way I could have “hedged” this is to have gone short on Party Poker shares, but I don’t have enough money to do that.

  10. mister z Says:

    I mean some kind of lifestyle/learning hedge, upskilling, postgrad coursework, whatever. EG like what professional women who have had a few years out of the workforce to raise kids do on the way back in. Maybe you didn’t have time for this though, I mean I have no idea what making a comfortable living on poker entails – is/was it a 20/40/60/80 hour a week effort?

  11. Rob Says:

    Some of us saw this coming a long time ago. My site started refusing gambling related advertising years ago. My legal advisor said that it was too riskly. Guess the money I paid him was well spent.

    And Yobbo, always have plan B. Some day you will need it.

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